Heat/Cold Mortality

Definition

Number of heat- and cold-related deaths

Why is it Important?

Extreme cold and extreme heat are the most common causes of weather-related deaths in the United States.¹ Extreme heat can cause life-threatening illnesses such as heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can increase the risk of suffering a heart attack. Extreme cold can result in hypothermia and also increases the risk of heart attacks.² Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and duration of heat waves, which will increase the risk of heat-related deaths. Conversely, climate change is expected to reduce the number of cold-related deaths, but not enough to offset the expected increase in heat-related deaths.³ Both heat- and cold-related deaths are preventable through proactive efforts such as public notification systems and public shelters. This indicator provides a conservative estimate of the number of heat- and cold-related deaths in the St. Louis region. Only deaths that are classified by medical professionals as related to excessive heat or excessive cold are included in the measure.

How are we Doing?

Between 2017 and 2021, there was an annual average of 26.2 deaths related to excessive heat or cold. This is an increase from the baseline period. From 2008 to 2012, there was an average of 24.0 heat- and cold-related deaths annually. Deaths in the most recent time period is higher than in the 2012-2016 time period, the most recent non-overlapping period, but is fewer than deaths in the 2011-2015 period. The five-year rolling annual average is used for this metric because there is a lot of fluctuation from year to year. Over the 2017-2021 time period, the St. Louis region ranked 13th among the 50 most populous metropolitan regions, with a higher rate of heat- and cold-related deaths per capita than many of the other peer regions. There was an average of 0.93 heat- and cold-related deaths per 100,000 population in the St. Louis region compared to 0.97 deaths per 100,000 population for the United States.

Geographic Level

St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). View map.

Notes

¹Goklany, Indur, Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events: Global and U.S. Trends, 1900-2006, November 2007; accessed on 12 February 2014 at media/site/documents/Goklany Death and Death Rates Due to Extremem Weather Events.pdf

²American heart Association, Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease, 4 December 2013; accessed on 15 February 2014 at http://www.heart.org/HEARTORG/Conditions/More/MyHeartandStrokeNews/Cold-Weather-and-Cardiovascular-Disease_UCM_315615_Article.jsp

³U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 13 September 2013; accessed on 8 January 2014 at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/society-eco/heat-deaths.html

⁴The heat- and cold-related deaths included in this indicator are those that were classified as having “excessive heat” or “excessive cold” as an underlying or contributing cause of death on the death certificate. Data for 2004 is not available due to the low number of heat- and cold-related deaths that year. 

Data Sources

Wonder Multiple Cause of Death Database, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention